April Results Highlight Dynamic Industry

Posted on by

bw166 released The Total Beverage Alcohol Overview for April 2020 utilizing tax paid data, government data sources, and other resources to give a perspective on the US Beverage Alcohol market. While the COVID-19 pandemic has caused alterations to the methodologies to track the significant shifts, bw166 continues to use actual data to provide a complete picture of the US.

Critical insights for April, the first full month of “stay at home”:

  • The 12-month serving index is up +2.4% versus LDA population growth of +1.0% – indicating US consumers have increased their overall consumption slightly while being home.
  • The significant shift from On-Premise to Off-Premise has reduced total consumer spending (due to On-Premise mark-ups) despite increases in volume.
  • Texas tax receipts in On-Premise accounts are down -88% year over year compared to +6% for 2019 (note that this data only includes On-Premise accounts that can sell Beer, Spirits, and Wine).
  • NABCA markets (excl. PA) show Spirits volumes +14.6% for the month. As these stores sell to consumers and On-Premise operators, this represents a significant increase in Spirits share.
  • Several states have released official reports for April which show Beer volumes -0.6%, Spirits volumes +5.7%, and Wine volumes +4.2% (inc. AK, IL, MO, NE, OR, TN, and WI which represented 12% of the LDA population and 12% of TBA servings in 2019).
  • The equivalent wholesale value of Beer and Spirits were up in April versus a year ago. Wine’s wholesale value was down due to the combined impact of significant declines in On-Premise and winery tasting rooms (bw166’s equivalent wholesale value represents the value as if 100% of business sells through the three-tier system).
  • Ultimately, the US Beverage Alcohol market is sustaining the impacts of COVID-19 far better than most countries with the Spirits category, the clear winner in gaining market share during the pandemic.

TTB Approved 180.1K Products Over Last Twelve Months through April 2020, An Increase of 8.7K (+5.1%)

Posted on by

By Category:

  • Beer: 42.1K products approved over the L12M (+7.7% vs. last year) and 10.5K over the L3M (–21.1% vs. last year)
  • Spirits: 17.4K products approved over the L12M (+19.8% vs. last year) and 4.7K over the L3M (+11.3% vs. last year)
  • Wine: 120.7K products approved over the L12M (+2.4% vs. last year) and 29.4K over the L3M (–22.2% vs. last year)

By Origin:

  • Domestic: 92.1K products approved over the L12M (+9.5% vs. last year) and 25.1K over the L3M (–12.5% vs. last year)
  • Imports: 88K products approved over the L12M (+0.9% vs. last year) and 19.5K over the L3M (–26.7% vs. last year)

For more information regarding Product Approvals including detailed category breakdowns and origin information (State for Domestic products and Country for Imported products), subscribe to the bw166 Product Approvals Report or visit our website at www.bw166.com.

Beer, Spirits, & Wine – Packaged Imports Grow +5.50% By Value Over Last Twelve Months through March 2020, Packaged Exports Flat

Posted on by

Total Beverage Alcohol:

  • Total beverage alcohol imports (including bulk and packaged) grew +6.50% by value over the last twelve months and grew +4.90% by value over the last three months. 27.4% of all imported beverage alcohol by value came from Mexico over the last twelve months.
  • Total beverage alcohol exports (included bulk and packaged) grew +1.70% by value over the last twelve months and grew +19.5% by value over the last three months. 20.1% of all exported beverage alcohol by value went to Canada over the last twelve months.

Each of the bw166 Import and Export Reports (for Beer, Spirits, and Wine) enable tracking Beverage Alcohol imports and exports on a monthly basis for volume, value in USD, and value in local currency for all major trading countries.

Beer:

  • Imported beer grew +2.70% by volume and grew +6.60% by value over the last twelve months. Over the last three months imports grew +3.10% by volume and grew +6.40% by value. 71.5% of imported beer by value comes from Mexico.
  • Exported beer declined -24.7% by volume and grew +8.00% by value over the last twelve months. Over the last three months exports declined -30.2% by volume and declined -18.3% by value. 18.5% of exported beer by value goes to Chile.

For more details regarding imported and exported beer across all countries, subscribe to the bw166 Beer – Imports and Exports report.

Spirits:

  • Imported packaged spirits for the last twelve months grew +6.40% by volume and grew +6.10% by value. Over the last three months volumes grew +0.200% and declined -2.90% by value.
  • Imported bulk spirits for the last twelve months grew +14.3% by volume and grew +23.9% by value. Over the last three months volumes grew +43.8% and grew +23.6% by value.
  • 30.3% of all imported packaged spirits by value arrived from France while 50.3% of all imported bulk spirits by value arrived from Brazil.
  • Exported packaged spirits for the last twelve months declined -42.0% by volume and declined -0.900% by value. Over the last three months volumes declined -34.4% and grew +34.7% by value.
  • Exported bulk spirits for the last twelve months declined -4.80% by volume and grew +4.10% by value. Over the last three months volumes grew +28.4% and grew +30.8% by value.
  • 23.9% of all exported packaged spirits by value is destined for Panama while 21.5% of all exported bulk spirits by value is destined for Canada.

For more details regarding imported and exported spirits including detailed category breakdowns across all countries, subscribe to the bw166 Spirits – Imports and Exports report.

Wine:

  • Imported packaged wine for the last twelve months grew +6.90% by volume and grew +3.60% by value. Over the last three months volumes grew +13.6% and grew +9.80% by value.
  • Imported bulk wine for the last twelve months grew +23.5% by volume and grew +11.5% by value. Over the last three months volumes grew +5.30% and grew +11.3% by value.
  • 33.5% of all imported packaged wine by value arrived from France while 28.0% of all imported bulk wine by value arrived from New Zealand.
  • Exported packaged wine for the last twelve months declined -4.60% by volume and declined -3.20% by value. Over the last three months volumes declined -6.00% and grew +3.70% by value.
  • Exported bulk wine for the last twelve months declined -4.40% by volume and declined -1.70% by value. Over the last three months volumes declined -13.7% and declined -6.90% by value.
  • 35.9% of all exported packaged wine by value is destined for Canada while 54.2% of all exported bulk wine by value is destined for United Kingdom.

For more details regarding imported and exported wine including detailed category breakdowns across all countries, subscribe to the bw166 Wine – Imports and Exports report.

TTB Approved 182.8K Products Over Last Twelve Months through March 2020, An Increase of 9.5K (+5.5%)

Posted on by

By Category:

  • Beer: 41.9K products approved over the L12M (+6.4% vs. last year) and 11.7K over the L3M (+6.8% vs. last year)
  • Spirits: 17.5K products approved over the L12M (+21.1% vs. last year) and 4.6K over the L3M (+45.6% vs. last year)
  • Wine: 123.4K products approved over the L12M (+3.3% vs. last year) and 29.2K over the L3M (+3% vs. last year)

By Origin:

  • Domestic: 92.2K products approved over the L12M (+9.1% vs. last year) and 25.9K over the L3M (+16.2% vs. last year)
  • Imports: 90.6K products approved over the L12M (+2.1% vs. last year) and 19.6K over the L3M (–2.8% vs. last year)

For more information regarding Product Approvals including detailed category breakdowns and origin information (State for Domestic products and Country for Imported products), subscribe to the bw166 Product Approvals Report or visit our website at www.bw166.com.

Total Beverage Alcohol Overview – March 2020

Posted on by

The March edition of bw166’s Total Beverage Alcohol Overview was released yesterday. 

The market has changed dramatically during March.  Some highlights include:

  • Pantry loading is evident in March with the Total Beverage Alcohol Index increasing 3.0% over the last twelve months – typically, this increases at an annual rate of 1.2%.
  • Off-Premise channels increased Beverage Alcohol sales by volume between 24% and 27%.
  • Volumes in On-premise Eating and Drinking Places declined by just over 50%.
  • On-Premise employee wages declined by 38%, which will continue in April.
  • In April, volume sold through the On-Premise will continue to decline between 80% and 90% versus April 2019.  The Off-Premise will likely make up this volume.  However, margins will contract as; generally, On-Premise has higher margins.

Recovery from the COVID-19 crisis will not be quick.  Some form of social distancing will likely be mandated until either a viable treatment is available or a vaccine is widely available.  The extension of social distancing implies that Off-Premise sales will be bolstered from reduced On-Premise consumption.  Considerations for the On-Premise include:

  • Limited seating, probably at 50% of standard capacity, will be the norm, challenging many restaurants to be profitable. 
  • Consumers will be hesitant to frequent restaurants immediately upon opening, so even building to 50% of capacity may take months.
  • Beverage Alcohol needs On-Premise for a healthy and vibrant market.  Suppliers and wholesalers need to support the slow recovery of the On-Premise.
  • Rumors have circulated of laying off or furloughing On-Premise staff at wholesalers or suppliers.  Companies should consider the short term benefits versus the long term challenges of hiring, training, and building relationships.
  • Wholesalers should reconsider supplier-dedicated teams in the On-Premise during this recovery to improve operational efficiencies and streamline the sales process for those accounts.
  • As the On-Premise opens to customers again, Wholesalers and Suppliers need to establish reasonable expectations given the slow recovery that will occur as well as be mindful of what is in the best interests of On-Premise operators during this phase.
  • On-Premise accounts will have low initial order quantities, which may lead wholesalers to limit deliveries or move to Tele-Sales.  While this may minimize expenses in the short term, wholesales must also consider the long term importance of building and maintaining relationships.

There is no doubt that Beverage Alcohol will not return to the old normal once this crisis has passed. Instead, a new normal will result, and a healthy and vibrant On-Premise market needs to be part of that norm.

For more details please subscribe to the bw166 – TBA Overview.