Beer, Spirits, & Wine – Packaged Imports Decline -9% By Value L12M through October 2023, Packaged Exports Decline -11%

Total Beverage Alcohol:

  • Total beverage alcohol imports (including bulk and packaged) declined -9% by value over the last twelve months and declined -14% by value over the last three months. 42% of all imported beverage alcohol by value came from Mexico over the last twelve months.

  • Total beverage alcohol exports (included bulk and packaged) declined -8% by value over the last twelve months and declined -4% by value over the last three months. 32% of all exported beverage alcohol by value went to Canada over the last twelve months.

Each of the bw166 Import and Export Reports (for Beer, Spirits, and Wine) enable tracking Beverage Alcohol imports and exports monthly for volume, value in USD, and value in local currency for all major trading countries.

Beer:

  • Imported beer declined -2% by volume and grew +1% by value over the last twelve months. Over the last three months, imports declined -6% by volume and declined -4% by value. 82% of imported beer by value comes from Mexico.
  • Exported beer declined -38% by volume and declined -28% by value over the last twelve months. Over the last three months, exports declined -46% by volume and declined -37% by value. 17% of exported beer by value goes to Honduras.

For more details regarding imported and exported beer across all countries, subscribe to the bw166 Beer – Imports and Exports report.

Spirits:

  • Imported packaged spirits for the last twelve months declined -16% by volume and declined -14% by value. Over the last three months, volumes declined -15% and declined -15% by value.
  • Imported bulk spirits for the last twelve months declined -17% by volume and declined -12% by value. Over the last three months, volumes declined -39% and declined -30% by value.
  • 44% of all imported packaged spirits by value arrived from Mexico while 29% of all imported bulk spirits by value arrived from Brazil.
  • Exported packaged spirits for the last twelve months grew +13% by volume and grew +1% by value. Over the last three months, volumes declined -5% and declined -14% by value.
  • Exported bulk spirits for the last twelve months grew +2% by volume and declined -4% by value. Over the last three months, volumes declined -14% and grew +13% by value.
  • 14% of all exported packaged spirits by value is destined for Canada while 41% of all exported bulk spirits by value is destined for Canada.

For more details regarding imported and exported spirits including detailed category breakdowns across all countries, subscribe to the bw166 Spirits – Imports and Exports report.

Wine:

  • Imported packaged wine for the last twelve months declined -20% by volume and declined -10% by value. Over the last three months, volumes declined -26% and declined -18% by value.
  • Imported bulk wine for the last twelve months declined -9% by volume and declined -16% by value. Over the last three months, volumes declined -8% and declined -10% by value.
  • 38% of all imported packaged wine by value arrived from France while 30% of all imported bulk wine by value arrived from New Zealand.
  • Exported packaged wine for the last twelve months declined -23% by volume and declined -19% by value. Over the last three months, volumes declined -22% and declined -18% by value.
  • Exported bulk wine for the last twelve months declined -41% by volume and declined -39% by value. Over the last three months, volumes declined -26% and declined -18% by value.
  • 37% of all exported packaged wine by value is destined for Canada while 56% of all exported bulk wine by value is destined for the United Kingdom.

For more details regarding imported and exported wine including detailed category breakdowns across all countries, subscribe to the bw166 Wine – Imports and Exports report.

The US Beverage Alcohol Market – September 2023

bw166 tracks the total beverage alcohol market in the US based on tax-paid shipments into the market, both domestic and imports, as well as various data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, The Bureau of Labor Statistics, and various state agencies.

The measurement of the market continues to be disrupted by the effects of the Pandemic, elevated inflation, increased interest rates, supply chain disruptions, and even the boom and then slowdown of Hard Seltzers.

bw166 has created serving indices to track total servings of Beverage Alcohol entering the market. The Basis of these indices are:

  • One serving of Beer is 12 ounces
  • One serving of Wine is 5 ounces with minor adjustments for Wine Coolers.
  • One serving of Spirits is 1 ½ ounces with adjustments for Cordials and RTDs.
  • The base year for the indices is 2003.
  • Since 1994, the growth in servings has generally grown in concert with the growth of Legal Drinking Age adults. This means that per capita consumption has been relatively flat. The Serving Index per LDA has hovered close to 100 from 1994 to 2019.

The following provides a few data points for the Serving Index

  • LDA Population Index – December 2019 – 120.4, July 2021 – 122.4, September 2023 – 124.9.
  • Serving Index per LDA – December 2019 – 99.7, July 2021 – 103.9, September 2023 – 95.9.
  • Serving Index Total Beverage Alcohol – December 2019 – 120.11, July 2021 – 127.14, September 2023 – 119.80.
  • Serving Index Beer – December 2019 – 100.6, July 2021 – 104.93, September 2023 – 96.06.
  • Serving Index Wine – December 2019 – 158.95, July 2021 – 169.46, September 2023 – 148.95.
  • Serving Index Spirits – December 2019 – 144.15, July 2021 – 155.32, September 2023 – 158.96.

Spirits servings have been bolstered by growth in RTDs and Cordials, while traditional spirits, such as Whiskey, Vodka, Tequila, etc., are showing recent slippage.

The general decline in the market can be explained as follows.

  • It is obvious that there was a pickup in shipments into the market through July 2021. This was due to the Pandemic as well as concerns about supply chain disruptions. The effect of this was a building of inventory at wholesalers, retailers, and even pantry loading by consumers.
  • Another factor during the pandemic was that consumers traded up in the Off-Premise as most of the On-Premise was shut down. This provided a signal to the market prices were moving up quickly. This was a false signal, and Off-Premise pricing has moderated. Unfortunately, more high-end products were brought into the market, which is causing an inventory overhang at high price points. A signal of this is the Census Bureau value of Beer/Wine/Spirits wholesale inventories growing from $18.7 Billion in September 2019 to $25.5 Billion in September 2023.
  • As the Pandemic moderated, the market has seen increases in inflation rates followed by higher interest rates.
    • Consumers have felt the impact and are likely drawing down pantry loading and moderating price points at which they purchase.
    • Retailers are watching consumer trends as well as looking at their balance sheets with higher carrying costs for inventories. They are carrying less inventory and refocusing their promotions at different price points.
    • Wholesalers typically carry a large amount of debt to carry their inventory. They are also reducing their inventory levels to reduce interest costs.

Historically, shipments into the market closely tracked apparent consumption. With the build-up of inventory during the pandemic, historical trends have not held. The implication is that as long as consumers maintain somewhat consistent consumption trends, the market will stabilize over the next twelve months and likely return to volume trends more like 2016 to 2019.

From a value standpoint, we believe that pricing will continue to slowly move up per unit as it has for the past few decades. It will not move up as quickly as it did during the pandemic.

Also, regarding consumer expenditures, a key source of data for bw166 is the Bureau of Economic Analysis. These are the economists that develop and report US GDP as well as the Consumer Price Index preferred by the Federal Reserve. With the September data, they have restated consumer expenditures from January 2013 to August 2023. The changes in the Compound Annual Growth Rates are shown below:

  • Beer Off-Premise: from 4.9% to 6.1%
  • Wine Off-Premise: from 4.9% to 6.5%
  • Spirits Off-Premise: from 5.1% to 7.2%
  • Total Beverage Alcohol On-Premise: from 6.7% to 6.2%

The implication of these changes is that for 12 Months ending September 2023, Consumers have spent $398 Billion on beverage alcohol. The US is a large and varied beverage alcohol market. While there is a short-term slowdown, as noted above, there are many opportunities if industry members focus on market share.

TTB Approved 180.6K Products L12M through September 2023, An Increase of 4.5K (+2.5%)

By Category:

  • Beer: 40.2K products approved over the L12M (–4.8% vs. last year) and 9.2K over the L3M (–4.7% vs. last year)
  • Spirits: 22.8K products approved over the L12M (flat vs. last year) and 5.8K over the L3M (–1.1% vs. last year)
  • Wine: 117.7K products approved over the L12M (+5.8% vs. last year) and 30.3K over the L3M (+9.9% vs. last year)

By Origin:

  • Domestic: 91.9K products approved over the L12M (–2.6% vs. last year) and 21.1K over the L3M (–2.9% vs. last year)
  • Imports: 88.8K products approved over the L12M (+8.5% vs. last year) and 24.2K over the L3M (+13.3% vs. last year)

For more information regarding Product Approvals including detailed category breakdowns and origin information (State for Domestic products and Country for Imported products), subscribe to the bw166 Product Approvals Report or visit our website at www.bw166.com.

Beer, Spirits, & Wine – Packaged Imports Decline -5% By Value L12M through August 2023, Packaged Exports Decline -5%

Total Beverage Alcohol:

  • Total beverage alcohol imports (including bulk and packaged) declined -5% by value over the last twelve months and declined -16% by value over the last three months. 41% of all imported beverage alcohol by value came from Mexico over the last twelve months.

  • Total beverage alcohol exports (including bulk and packaged) declined -5% by value over the last twelve months and declined -7% by value over the last three months. 32% of all exported beverage alcohol by value went to Canada over the last twelve months.

Each of the bw166 Import and Export Reports (for Beer, Spirits, and Wine) enables tracking of Beverage Alcohol imports and exports on a monthly basis for volume, value in USD, and value in local currency for all major trading countries.

Beer:

  • Imported beer grew +0% by volume and grew +3% by value over the last twelve months. Over the last three months, imports grew +0% by volume and grew +4% by value. 82% of imported beer by value comes from Mexico.
  • Exported beer declined -34% by volume and declined -22% by value over the last twelve months. Over the last three months, exports declined -53% by volume and declined -35% by value. 17% of exported beer by value goes to Honduras.

For more details regarding imported and exported beer across all countries, subscribe to the bw166 Beer – Imports and Exports report.

Spirits:

  • Imported packaged spirits for the last twelve months declined -12% by volume and declined -9% by value. Over the last three months, volumes declined -25% and declined -24% by value.
  • Imported bulk spirits for the last twelve months declined -5% by volume and declined -7% by value. Over the last three months, volumes declined -23% and declined -14% by value.
  • 43% of all imported packaged spirits by value arrived from Mexico while 30% of all imported bulk spirits by value arrived from Brazil.
  • Exported packaged spirits for the last twelve months grew +24% by volume and grew +10% by value. Over the last three months, volumes grew +12% and grew +9% by value.
  • Exported bulk spirits for the last twelve months grew +11% by volume and declined -5% by value. Over the last three months, volumes declined -4% and declined -1% by value.
  • 14% of all exported packaged spirits by value is destined for Canada while 41% of all exported bulk spirits by value is destined for Canada.

For more details regarding imported and exported spirits including detailed category breakdowns across all countries, subscribe to the bw166 Spirits – Imports and Exports report.

Wine:

  • Imported packaged wine for the last twelve months declined -18% by volume and declined -6% by value. Over the last three months, volumes declined -29% and declined -20% by value.
  • Imported bulk wine for the last twelve months declined -10% by volume and declined -19% by value. Over the last three months, volumes declined -38% and declined -58% by value.
  • 38% of all imported packaged wine by value arrived from France while 29% of all imported bulk wine by value arrived from New Zealand.
  • Exported packaged wine for the last twelve months declined -19% by volume and declined -16% by value. Over the last three months, volumes declined -23% and declined -22% by value.
  • Exported bulk wine for the last twelve months declined -39% by volume and declined -37% by value. Over the last three months, volumes declined -66% and declined -63% by value.
  • 37% of all exported packaged wine by value is destined for Canada while 56% of all exported bulk wine by value is destined for the United Kingdom.

For more details regarding imported and exported wine including detailed category breakdowns across all countries, subscribe to the bw166 Wine – Imports and Exports report.

TTB Approved 179.1K Products L12M through July 2023, An Increase of 3.1K (+1.8%)

By Category:

  • Beer: 40.5K products approved over the L12M (–5.8% vs. last year) and 9.4K over the L3M (–4.6% vs. last year)
  • Spirits: 23.1K products approved over the L12M (+2.3% vs. last year) and 6.1K over the L3M (–2.6% vs. last year)
  • Wine: 115.6K products approved over the L12M (+4.6% vs. last year) and 33.5K over the L3M (+6.5% vs. last year)

By Origin:

  • Domestic: 92.3K products approved over the L12M (–2.6% vs. last year) and 23.4K over the L3M (–4.2% vs. last year)
  • Imports: 86.8K products approved over the L12M (+6.8% vs. last year) and 25.7K over the L3M (+10.6% vs. last year)

For more information regarding Product Approvals including detailed category breakdowns and origin information (State for Domestic products and Country for Imported products), subscribe to the bw166 Product Approvals Report or visit our website at www.bw166.com.